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THE RECENT INFLATION REPORT:
Inflation came in at 7.5% year over year, the highest on record in the last 40 years. That’s because it’s reported that now 80% of all US dollars in existence were printed in the last 22 months…and now that our economy has, for the most part, completely re-opened…that money is driving up the cost of everything around us…leading to the highest inflation that most of us have ever seen in our lifetime.
The main category that gets the most attention is what’s known as “CPI INFLATION,” which stands for the Consumer Price Index. This covers a weighted average of the most frequently used purchases….and, is tracked on a year over year basis every single month.
From all the research I could dive into on a Thursday night, every aspect of CPI is being constantly adjusted to reflect for quality increases, quantity decreases, new features, and keeping that as consistent as possible….BUT, since technology is giving us so much more, for less - there is a DEFLATIONARY ASPECT to this number which could weight it as being somewhat unreliable for certain people’s experiences…although, ultimately…no measure is perfect, and that’s just the reality.
In terms of WHY INFLATION is so high…besides low interest rates and a surplus of money printing…we’re in a unique position where we have several forces all working against us, at the same time. For example, we have what’s known as “DEMAND-PULL INFLATION,” where demand outpaces supply…and, as a result prices rise. We also have “COST-PUSH INFLATION” while supply is temporarily restricted from supply chain and labor shortages….causing prices to rise even more.
In terms of the market, though…worse inflation readings INCREASE the likelihood of a LARGER RATE HIKE when the FED meets in March…and, that’s seen as a NEGATIVE for stock values, as borrowing gets more expensive.
See, prior to now - the market was pricing in the 100% chance of a rate hike in March, with the most likely outcome being a quarter point increase…and, a 28% chance of a HALF A POINT INCREASE…BUT NOW, after the new inflation reading…futures showed a 62% chance that the FED will raise rates by half a point…and, other metrics showed that increase as having a 95% probability of happening.
In other words, the one thing the market HATES is UNCERTAINTY - and when inflation comes in higher than expected - it sends the market into a frenzy to price in the worst case scenario - so, your portfolio sees some red, as a result.
During times like this, I’m a huge fan of focusing on what you can control - and, even though you can’t control whether or not Chipotle raises the cost of a Burrito - you can control your positioning in the workforce, being a price-conscious spender, investing consistently, diversifying into assets that hedge against inflation….and thinking long term.
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